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China’s Macro-Economic Optimism Keeps Aluminum Prices in High Volatility

The rise in oil prices and the fall of the US dollar index boosted market bullish confidence, resulting in LME aluminum closing up by 1.28% over the week. Frequent macroeconomic benefits in China supported strong gains in Shanghai aluminum, with aluminum ingot inventories remaining low. Today’s spot aluminum prices are expected to rise.

The rise in oil prices and the fall of the US dollar index boosted market bullish confidence. The market’s risk appetite continues to warm up, improving the demand outlook for non-ferrous metals and supporting price trends. LME aluminum fluctuated upwards over the week, closing with a strong bias, and the latest closing price was $2,621 per ton, up $33, or 1.28%. The trading volume was 16,891 lots, down 11,212 lots, and the open interest was 654,766 lots, down 766 lots. On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum opened higher with wide fluctuations, maintaining a strong stance. The price center continued to rise, with the main contract for July 2024 closing at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 235 yuan, or 1.13%.

On May 17, the latest aluminum inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) was 1,093,275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

On May 17, spot aluminum prices were as follows: Yangtze River composite spot A00 aluminum ingot price was reported at 20,715 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; Chalco East China A00 aluminum ingot price was reported at 20,720 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan. Frequent macroeconomic benefits in China supported strong gains in Shanghai aluminum, particularly with the reduction in housing provident fund loan interest rates, the relaxation of real estate purchase restrictions, and the issuance of trillion-yuan ultra-long-term government bonds. Additionally, market sentiment driven by speculation also stimulated the bullish momentum in the aluminum market. Furthermore, downstream demand remains resilient, with marginal improvement in receiving sentiment. The continuous rise in alumina prices and the low inventory of aluminum ingots support the prices. Coupled with the recent overall rise in non-ferrous metals and favorable macro policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain at high levels with fluctuations. Today’s spot aluminum prices are likely to rise.

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