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Increased Supply Supports Shanghai Aluminum Despite Low Inventories; Aluminum Expected to Rise Slightly on September 11th

The tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has cooled market risk appetite, leading to a 0.71% drop in London aluminum prices two weeks ago. Weakness in China’s August trade data has also weighed on market sentiment. While aluminum production continues to rise in Shanghai, warehouse inventories remain limited, potentially leading to a slight increase in aluminum prices today.

The Federal Reserve’s tightening policy has further dampened market risk appetite, intensifying concerns among investors about the outlook for metal demand. London aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels two weeks ago and closed weaker, with the latest closing price at $2,181 per ton, down $16 or 0.71%. Trading volume decreased by 1,763 lots to 13,377 lots, while open interest increased by 98 lots to 659,971 lots. On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rebounded weakly from its lows and continued to trade weakly, with the latest closing price for the main September 2310 contract at ¥19,035 per ton, down ¥25 or 0.13%.

As of September 8th, the latest inventory of London Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was reported at 499,475 metric tons, a decrease of 2,000 metric tons or 0.40% from the previous trading day.

On September 8th, the spot price of aluminum in China was as follows: A00 aluminum ingot price in the Yangtze River comprehensive spot market was ¥19,390 per ton, down ¥85 per ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot price in East China Aluminum Corporation was ¥19,420 per ton, down ¥50 per ton. Weakness in China’s August trade data, combined with concerns about a large amount of imports and the overall weakness in industrial goods, has led to price declines. In addition, the further depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has undermined market confidence. Despite the ongoing increase in aluminum production in Shanghai, warehouse inventories remain limited, and overall social inventories are still low. Considering the gradual implementation of real estate policies and expectations for a strong September and October season, the outlook for the aluminum market is promising. In the short term, aluminum prices may experience a slight rebound, and aluminum is expected to rise slightly today.

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