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Policy Dividends Emerge, but High Aluminum Prices Suppress Demand; Aluminum Prices on September 13th Expected to See Limited Upside or Downside

The US Dollar Index has strengthened once again, causing commodities priced in US dollars to become more expensive for non-US dollar investors, thereby dampening enthusiasm for buying such commodities. Overnight, London aluminum traded under pressure, closing with a 0.36% decline, at a latest quote of $2,196 per ton, down $8, with a trading volume of 131,359 contracts, a decrease of 2,403 contracts, and an open interest of 659,794 contracts, down 774 contracts. In the evening, Shanghai aluminum opened higher but then dropped, with a weak rebound from its low level during the night, stabilizing to close with a small gain. The latest closing price for the main monthly contract, 2310, was CNY 19,255 per ton, up CNY 10, or 0.05%.

On September 12th, the latest inventory of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was reported at 493,875 metric tons, a decrease of 2,000 metric tons compared to the previous trading day, representing a 0.40% decline.

On September 12th, the spot aluminum prices were as follows: the Yangtze River spot AOO aluminum ingot price was reported at CNY 19,525 per ton, up CNY 70 per ton, while the Chinalco East AOO aluminum ingot price was reported at CNY 19,520 per ton, up CNY 70 per ton. The continuous emergence of policy dividends in China has driven industrial commodity prices higher, and market risk appetite continues to rise, causing Shanghai aluminum prices to fluctuate upwards. In addition, social aluminum ingot inventory levels remain low, and aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continue to decline, providing momentum for the rise in aluminum prices. However, the high aluminum prices have restrained demand performance, limiting the purchasing power of receiving merchants. As a result, overall spot trading has been sluggish, putting pressure on aluminum price increases. It is expected that the movement in aluminum prices on September 13th will be limited。

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