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Shanghai aluminum finds support at the bottom, currently trading in a range-bound pattern. Aluminum prices on the 20th are expected to rise.

Lower oil prices weigh on the commodity market, leading to a 0.91% decline in London aluminum overnight. China’s aluminum production rose in June, but limited growth due to sluggish end-user demand. Currently, Shanghai aluminum is trading in a range-bound pattern with fluctuations. It is expected that aluminum prices will increase today.

Lower oil prices drag down the commodity market, and with macroeconomic data being tepid, market sentiment remains volatile. Overnight, London aluminum recorded its fourth consecutive decline, continuing its weak and fluctuating trend. The latest closing price was $2,186 per tonne, marking a decrease of $20 or 0.91%. The trading volume increased by 1,115 lots to 16,575 lots, while the open interest decreased by 11,769 lots to 684,448 lots. In the evening session, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and maintained a relatively strong trend. The latest closing price for the main contract (2308) was 18,280 yuan per tonne, up by 70 yuan or 0.38%.

On July 19th, the latest inventory of London Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was reported at 514,300 metric tons, a decrease of 3,100 metric tons or 0.60% compared to the previous trading day.

On July 19th, the spot aluminum prices were as follows: The comprehensive spot price for AOO aluminum ingots on the Yangtze River was reported at 18,295 yuan per tonne, down by 75 yuan per tonne. The AOO aluminum ingot price for East China Aluminum Corporation (Chinalco) was reported at 18,270 yuan per tonne, down by 100 yuan per tonne.

China’s aluminum production increased in June, with data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing a production of 3.46 million tonnes, a nearly 3% year-on-year increase. The daily output in June rose to 115,333 tonnes, reflecting supply pressures. However, the sluggish end-user demand has limited the price gains. Currently, Shanghai aluminum is trading in a range-bound pattern. Meanwhile, the domestic market sentiment received a boost as the government announced increased policy support for the private economy. Moreover, the aluminum ingot social inventory remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years, providing support to prices. Therefore, it is expected that spot aluminum prices will increase today.

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