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Southwest power and production restrictions causing disruptions are supporting the rise in aluminum prices on October 31st; aluminum is expected to increase.

US stocks rebounded across the board as market risk appetite continued to improve. Overnight, London aluminum showed relative strength, closing at $2,264 per ton, up $38 or 1.71%, with trading volume increasing by 5,383 lots to 20,742 lots and open interest rising by 653 lots to 641,703 lots. In the evening, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and traded at 19,225 yuan per ton for the main contract (2312), up 1,000 yuan or 0.52%.

London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum stocks as of October 28th were reported at 476,725 metric tons, down 2,000 metric tons or 0.42% from the previous trading day.

On October 30th, the spot price of aluminum, AOO aluminum ingot on the Yangtze River nonferrous metals market, was reported at 19,165 yuan per ton, up 260 yuan per ton, while East China Aluminum’s AOO aluminum ingot price was reported at 19,150 yuan per ton, up 240 yuan per ton. Positive expectations on domestic policy are boosting the relatively strong performance of industrial metals. Disruptions caused by power and production restrictions in the southwestern region are supporting the increase in aluminum prices. The reduction rate in Yunnan Province has been roughly determined, with four aluminum smelters reducing production by 9% to 40%. This reduction is expected to begin shortly, with a total reduction of up to 1.15 million tons. However, the performance of spot transactions has been mediocre, demand is not as robust as expected, and the transportation of aluminum via the Lanxin Railway has increased supply in the northwest, affecting inventory clearance and limiting the upward potential of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to rise today, but the extent of the increase may be limited.

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