Steel traders predict that the “Golden Three” steel market is expected to pick up

How will the steel market trend after the Spring Festival? Can the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” steel market pick up this year? These are the most talked about topics in the steel circulation field after the Spring Festival holiday. On February 18, steel traders such as Li Zhongshuang, general manager of Shanghai Ruikun Metal Materials Co., Ltd., Liang Taigeng, general manager of Shanghai Hualei Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from China Metallurgical News that steel market prices will fluctuate slightly after the Spring Festival. Operation, it is expected to gradually pick up in March.
The “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” steel market is recovering and prices are rising, which is the common expectation of steel traders. “In March, the cold-rolled and hot-rolled coil markets are expected to pick up, and prices will gradually rise.” Li Zhongshuang predicts that in early March, the price of hot-rolled products may rise to around 4,300 yuan/ton, and the price of cold-rolled products will be around 4,800 yuan/ton. Around tons. Liang Taigeng believes that my country’s rebar market prices will show an “M” shaped trend this year, with the mainstream market price of rebar in the Shanghai-Hangzhou region fluctuating between 3,300 yuan/ton and 4,600 yuan/ton, with price highs expected in the first and second half of the year. Appear in March-April and September-October respectively.
According to Li Zhongshuang and other steel traders, judging from the trajectory of the steel market over the years, under normal circumstances, steel demand has been significantly released in March and April compared with January and February. The intensity of “steel demand” has increased, and market transactions have been active. Steel prices are prone to rebound. Li Zhongshuang believes that the demand for steel products in the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” this year may be stronger than in previous years. Judging from the positive signals released by the two sessions in various places, many places have clearly defined their GDP targets for 2024 and formulated a series of policies to stabilize growth. Some places have also introduced policies to promote enterprises to resume production and reach capacity after the Spring Festival. According to incomplete statistics, in January 2024, a total of 7,970 major projects were started across the country, a month-on-month increase of 187.21%; the total investment amount was approximately 5,429.515 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 202.46%.
Li Zhongshuang and other steel traders believe that in March, the construction of major projects in various places will enter a period of acceleration, which is expected to increase the demand for steel, especially the demand for construction steel such as rebar and wire rods. It is worth looking forward to. Steel traders predict that the construction steel market is expected to pick up significantly with this year’s “Gold, Three and Silver”. In addition, the National Two Sessions are about to be held, which is expected to introduce a series of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and expand domestic demand. Judging from the local two sessions, many provinces have proposed to accelerate the development of automobile, machinery, home appliances and other manufacturing industries this year.
In terms of automobiles, Shanghai proposed to cultivate and upgrade high-end industrial clusters such as new energy vehicles and accelerate the creation of future industry pilot areas; carry out national pilot projects for access and on-road access to intelligent connected vehicles; consolidate and expand consumption in key areas such as automobiles; build 10,000 new electric vehicles Public charging stations. Guangxi plans to set up three autonomous region laboratories for new energy vehicles this year; a total of 165,000 vehicle charging piles have been built to achieve full coverage of highway service areas. Beijing promotes the construction of fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters; promotes the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry, and actively lays out the industrial chain of key components such as motors, batteries, electronic controls, and vehicle-grade chips; boosts bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles, and promotes equipment Renewal and trade-in of consumer goods.
In terms of machinery manufacturing, Hunan focuses on special engineering machinery and characteristic agricultural machinery equipment industries to enhance the international competitiveness of its leading products; promotes the research and development and manufacturing of key software and hardware such as industrial robots and service robots, and expands applications in key fields. Henan builds an advanced equipment industry cluster; focusing on new power equipment, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery equipment, robots and CNC machine tools, implementing major technical and equipment research projects, promoting the improvement of component products to high quality and high performance, and the development of single machine products towards serialization and complete sets , complete sets of products are moving toward high-end and intelligence; striving for national advanced manufacturing clusters of innovative power equipment and advanced agricultural machinery equipment.
In terms of home appliances, Jilin supports the trade-in of old home appliances and household items for new ones, and steadily expands the consumption of electronic products. Jiangsu has carried out in-depth “Jiangsu New Consumption” series of activities to boost bulk consumption and promote the replacement of old household appliances with new ones. Tibet carries out activities to bring home appliances and furniture to the countryside, encourages the consumption of electronic products, and improves the trade-in subsidy policy. Guangxi stabilizes and expands traditional consumption, promotes large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods, and continues to carry out home appliances, home furnishing and other activities to the countryside. Guangdong promotes bulk consumption of electronic products, home appliances, home furnishings, etc., promotes the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and cultivates and develops key enterprises in trade and circulation.
Li Zhongshuang and other steel traders predict that after the Spring Festival, traders will have little sales pressure in the short term, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to ease. In January and February this year, my country’s steel market will show a “weak supply and demand” situation, and there will still be some support on the cost side. It is expected that steel market prices will fluctuate slightly.