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Supported by upward pressure and limited low inventory, aluminum prices on the 31st may experience restrained fluctuations.

The US dollar retreated, and the stock market collectively strengthened, with aluminum futures in London rising by 0.81% over the past week. The lackluster performance of Shanghai aluminum’s fundamental factors restrained its price surge. However, the continuous decline in aluminum ingot inventories provided strong support to the prices. As a result, the current aluminum prices are expected to experience limited fluctuations.

The US dollar retreated while the stock market strengthened collectively, as market risk sentiment increased. During the past week, London aluminum futures surged sharply in a straight line before undergoing a relatively strong consolidation, closing with a bullish candlestick at 2227 USD per ton, recording a gain of 18 USD, representing a 0.81% increase. The trading volume decreased by 3636 lots to 11193 lots, while the open interest increased by 2641 lots to 676694 lots.

On Friday evening, the Shanghai aluminum market experienced significant volatility, showing a weak oscillation and ending with a small bearish candlestick. The latest closing price for the main 2309 contract was 18355 CNY per ton, down 20 CNY, or 0.11%.

On July 28th, the latest inventory of aluminum in the London Metal Exchange (LME) was reported at 509,000 metric tons, a decrease of 2,000 metric tons, or 0.39%, compared to the previous trading day.

On July 28th, the spot price of aluminum showed a decline in the market. The comprehensive spot price for AOO aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River region was reported at 18360 CNY per ton, down 135 CNY per ton. Similarly, the AOO aluminum ingot price in East China, offered by China Aluminum Corporation (CHINALCO), was 18350 CNY per ton, down 140 CNY per ton. The lackluster performance of Shanghai aluminum’s fundamental factors has been restricting its upward momentum, with stable but accelerating supply-side pressures and less-than-ideal demand-side performance. Leading downstream aluminum industries are experiencing declining capacity utilization rates, contributing to the subdued spot trading activity. However, the continuous decline in aluminum ingot inventories is providing relatively strong support to the prices. Additionally, recent favorable macroeconomic factors domestically have influenced the overall trend of base metal prices. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue fluctuating within a limited range, and the price movement today may experience restrained fluctuations.

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