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Expectations of a better domestic economy boosted confidence in the aluminum market

The expectation of an improved domestic economy boosts confidence in the aluminum market. As the economy gradually recovers, demand for aluminum is also expected to increase across various industries. Aluminum, as an important industrial raw material, has a wide range of applications in construction, transportation, electronics, and other fields, leading to a continued growth in demand. Additionally, domestic policies may also have a positive impact on the aluminum market, with policies supporting infrastructure construction and the development of new energy sources expected to drive demand in the aluminum market. Therefore, with the increasing expectation of a stronger domestic economy, the outlook for the aluminum market has become more optimistic.

The European Central Bank’s dovish stance and a large influx of funds buying into the market have helped aluminum prices rise for six consecutive sessions. LME aluminum continued its upward trend, maintaining a strong position with a sixth consecutive gain, closing at $2,661 per ton, up $51 or 1.93%, with a trading volume of 36,656 contracts, an increase of 8,361 lots, and an open interest of 667,235 contracts, up 1,473 lots. On Friday evening, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and rose, showing a strong trend during the session, with the main 2406 contract closing at 20,475 yuan per ton, up 95 yuan or 0.47%.

On April 19, LME aluminum inventories fell by 5,250 tons to 504,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03% from the previous trading day.

On April 19, the spot price of aluminum, the A00 ingot price of the Yangtze River Comprehensive Spot, was reported at 20,335 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan; the A00 ingot price of East China Aluminum was reported at 20,340 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan. The recovery of the global manufacturing industry has driven the growth of demand for industrial metals. Following the ban on new Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel by the United States and the United Kingdom from trading on the LME and CME one week ago, the market is gradually adapting to the impact of this new regulation. Meanwhile, more and more investors are requesting the cancellation of metal warrants from LME-registered warehouses. As a result, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 43,075 tons to 171,200 tons, reaching a new low since August 2022, providing further impetus for aluminum prices to rise and driving up domestic market prices. The expectation of an improved domestic economy boosts confidence in the aluminum market, with resilient consumption expectations and optimistic outlooks for the future in the spot market. Downstream traders are maintaining rigid demand replenishment, and the outflow of aluminum ingots has improved compared to before, narrowing the discount. However, aluminum prices still mainly follow the fluctuations of the non-ferrous sector. In the short term, it is expected that today’s spot aluminum prices will continue to rise.

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