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The simultaneous rise of crude oil and the U.S. dollar triggers market speculation; on the 11th, aluminum prices are expected to experience a predominantly downward trend.

The simultaneous rise of crude oil and the U.S. dollar has triggered market speculation; LME aluminum faces pressure with a slight increase of 0.14% in the coming week. China’s significant conference attracts attention, raising expectations for market policies, but weak downstream consumption may limit the upward or downward movement of aluminum prices today.

The simultaneous rise of crude oil and the U.S. dollar has led to market speculation. Strong performance in the U.S. non-farm data for November indicates the continued strength of the U.S. labor market. This has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, reducing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2024. However, due to the support provided by the rebound in the oil market, the market has not experienced a significant downturn. LME aluminum trends are under pressure, consolidating in a sideways pattern and closing slightly higher. The latest closing price is $2,134 per ton, up $3, or 0.14%. Trading volume increased by 1,244 lots to 18,393 lots, while open interest decreased by 220 lots to 678,350 lots. On Friday evening, Shanghai aluminum opened high but moved downward, closing with a negative candle. The latest closing price for the main contract (2401) is CNY 18,395 per ton, down CNY 15, or 0.08%.

As of December 8th, the latest LME aluminum inventory is reported at 453,225 metric tons, an increase of 10,725 metric tons or 2.42% compared to the previous trading day.

On December 8th, the spot aluminum prices were as follows: the A00 aluminum ingot price on the Yangtze River Comprehensive Index was CNY 18,515 per ton, up CNY 40 per ton; the A00 aluminum ingot price on East China Aluminum was CNY 18,520 per ton, up CNY 40 per ton. China’s significant conference is in the spotlight, with rising expectations for market policies. However, with weak downstream consumption, spot trading remains subdued. Under the backdrop of the traditional off-season for consumption, there is significant upward pressure on aluminum prices. In addition, the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar index has offset optimistic expectations in the domestic policy environment. The downstream processing leading enterprises have reduced production rates, and the building materials sector’s orders have slightly declined, creating a bearish sentiment for aluminum consumption. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience a predominantly downward trend today.

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