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The strong demand season in the end-user sector has yet to show significant signs, exerting pressure on aluminum prices; aluminum prices may decline on the 20th.

Both the stock market and crude oil declined, causing London aluminum to edge down by 0.07% overnight. The supply impact of Yunnan’s full production in August and increasing imports has gradually formed, with no clear indication of strong demand in the peak season for end-users, suggesting a potential decline in aluminum prices today.

In the aluminum futures market, the upcoming Federal Reserve decision is increasing market risk aversion, and with both the stock market and crude oil declining, the commodity market is generally under pressure. Overnight, London aluminum initially rose but then retraced, ending the session weakly in the red. The latest closing price was $2,216 per ton, down $1 or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 171 lots, a decrease of 3,892 lots, and an open interest of 654,433 lots, a decrease of 7,456 lots. In the evening, Shanghai aluminum opened higher but fell, showing a weak trend. The latest closing price for the main contract, September 2310, was CNY 19,165 per ton, down CNY 110 or 0.57%.

On September 19th, the latest LME aluminum inventory was reported at 489,825 metric tons, a decrease of 2,750 metric tons compared to the previous trading day, down 0.56%.

On September 19th, the spot price of aluminum, Longjiang Comprehensive Spot AOO Aluminum Ingot, was reported at CNY 19,515 per ton, up CNY 130 per ton. Meanwhile, China Aluminum East AOO Aluminum Ingot was reported at CNY 19,510 per ton, up CNY 130. The impact of Yunnan’s full production in August and the increasing import volume has gradually created a supply shock, leading to stockpiling in the market. In addition, there is still no significant indication of strong demand in the downstream processing industry, with many downstream processing companies reporting relatively low new order volumes. Therefore, with weak fundamental drivers and sluggish actual demand, aluminum prices are adjusting downward. However, considering the pent-up demand for just-in-time inventory from downstream buyers ahead of the upcoming holidays, the downside for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. Nevertheless, a cautious sentiment continues to affect spot trading performance, so today’s spot aluminum prices are likely to decline.

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